Deep neural network for monitoring the growth of COVID-19 epidemic using meteorological covariates

Growth of an epidemic is influenced by the natural variation in climatic conditions and enforcement variation in government stringency policies. Though these variations do not prompt an instant change in the growth of an epidemic, effects of climatic conditions and stringency policies become apparent over time. Time-lagged relationships and functional dynamic connectivity among meteorological covariates and stringency levels generate many lagged features deemed to be important for prediction of reproduction rate, a measure for growth of an epidemic. This empirical study examines the importance scores of lagged features and implements distributed lag inspired feature selection with back testing for model selection and forecasting. A verification forecasting scheme is developed for continuous monitoring of the growth of an epidemic. We have demonstrated the monitoring process by computing a week ahead expected target of the reproduction rate and then by computing a one day ahead verification forecast to evaluate the progress towards the expected target. This evaluation procedure will aid the analysts with a decision making tool for any early adjustment of control options to suppress the transmission.

The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries.

Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, and cross-country and cross-period variation in COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) has not been clarified. Here, we aimed to identify the country-specific effects of booster vaccination and other features that may affect heterogeneity in age-adjusted CFRs with a worldwide scope, and to predict the benefit of increasing booster vaccination rate on future CFR. Method: Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in CFR were identified in 32 countries using the latest available database, with multi-feature (vaccination coverage, demographic characteristics, disease burden, behavioral risks, environmental risks, health services and trust) using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). After that, country-specific risk features that affect age-adjusted CFRs were identified. The benefit of booster on age-adjusted CFR was simulated by increasing booster vaccination by 1-30% in each country. Results: Overall COVID-19 age-adjusted CFRs across 32 countries ranged from 110 deaths per 100,000 cases to 5,112 deaths per 100,000 cases from February 4, 2020 to Jan 31, 2022, which were divided into countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs and countries with age-adjusted CFRs lower than the crude CFRs (n = 9 and n = 23) when compared with the crude CFR. The effect of booster vaccination on age-adjusted CFRs becomes more important from Alpha to Omicron period (importance scores: 0.03-0.23). The Omicron period model showed that the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR are low GDP per capita and low booster vaccination rates, while the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR were high dietary risks and low physical activity. Increasing booster vaccination rates by 7% would reduce CFRs in all countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs. Conclusion: Booster vaccination still plays an important role in reducing age-adjusted CFRs, while there are multidimensional concurrent risk factors and precise joint intervention strategies and preparations based on country-specific risks are also essential.

Predicting Happiness Score during Covid-19 Using Machine Learning

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a bad dream for many people. People suffered from job losses, leading to a low level of happiness. Happiness is the key to a healthy life, and predicting the happiness score of 156 countries will give the idea of a happiness index around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. An open dataset of the happiness index has been picked from the World Happiness Report, which is manifested already in a United Nations conference. The available dataset splits into training data and testing data, respectively. The training data have fitted into different machine learning algorithms. After that, the prediction score has observed based on testing data. After applying a large number of algorithms, the highest accuracy of the resulting regression model is 97 percent. © 2022 IEEE.

Analysis of changes in geographical factors affecting sales in commercial alleys after COVID-19 using machine learning techniques.

Social restrictions, such as social distancing and self-isolation, imposed owing to the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic have resulted in a decreased demand of commodities and manufactured products. However, the factors influencing sales in commercial districts in the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods have not yet been fully understood. Thus, this study uses machine learning techniques to identify the changes in important geographical factors among both periods that have affected sales in commercial alleys. It was discovered that, in the post-COVID-19 period, the number of pharmacies, age groups of the working population, average monthly income, and number of families living in apartments priced higher than $600k in the catchment areas had relatively high importance after COVID-19 in the prediction of a high level of sales. Moreover, the percentage of deciduous forests appeared to be a important factor in the post-COVID-19 period. As the average monthly income and worker population in their 60s and numbers of pharmacies and banks increased after the pandemic, sales in commercial alleys also increased. The survival of commercial alleys has become a critical social problem in the post-COVID-19 era; therefore, this study is meaningful in that it suggests a policy direction that could contribute to the revitalization of commercial alley sales in the future and boost the local economy.

A Systematic Literature Review in Diagnosis and Severity Estimation of COVID-19 Disease using Machine Learning

In identification of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2(SARS-CoV-2), the novel corona virus responsible for COVID-19, professionals related to medical domain have been entered to implement various novel technical solutions and patient diagnosis techniques. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated enforcement of machine learning (ML) technology, and various other such organizational groups have been eager to embrace and adjust these ML techniques to the outbreak concerns. We have carried out a tremendous analysis based on the literature available till now. The complete assessment carried related to the use of machine learning models to fight against COVID-19, emphasis on various aspects like disease effects, it's diagnosis, percentage of severity estimation, drug and treatment analysis, effective feature selection, and also post-Covid context related. A systematic search of online research repositories which are Google Scholar, Web of Science and PubMed was undertaken in corresponding to the "Preferred Reporting items for Meta-Analysis and Systematic Reviews" criteria to find all related published papers during 2020 and 2022 years. The search process was created by integrating COVID-19-typical terms with the word "machine learning.". Copyright © 2022, Anka Publishers. All rights reserved.

A Precise Method to Detect Post-COVID-19 Pulmonary Fibrosis Through Extreme Gradient Boosting.

The association of pulmonary fibrosis with COVID-19 patients has now been adequately acknowledged and caused a significant number of mortalities around the world. As automatic disease detection has now become a crucial assistant to clinicians to obtain fast and precise results, this study proposes an architecture based on an ensemble machine learning approach to detect COVID-19-associated pulmonary fibrosis. The paper discusses Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and its tuned hyper-parameters to optimize the performance for the prediction of severe COVID-19 patients who developed pulmonary fibrosis after 90 days of hospital discharge. A dataset comprising Electronic Health Record (EHR) and corresponding High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) images of chest of 1175 COVID-19 patients has been considered, which involves 725 pulmonary fibrosis cases and 450 normal lung cases. The experimental results achieved an accuracy of 98%, precision of 99% and sensitivity of 99%. The proposed model is the first in literature to help clinicians in keeping a record of severe COVID-19 cases for analyzing the risk of pulmonary fibrosis through EHRs and HRCT scans, leading to less chance of life-threatening conditions.

Machine learning and comorbidity network analysis for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a city in Southern Brazil.

The large amount of data generated during the COVID-19 pandemic requires advanced tools for the long-term prediction of risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality with higher accuracy. Machine learning (ML) methods directly address this topic and are essential tools to guide public health interventions. Here, we used ML to investigate the importance of demographic and clinical variables on COVID-19 mortality. We also analyzed how comorbidity networks are structured according to age groups. We conducted a retrospective study of COVID-19 mortality with hospitalized patients from Londrina, Parana, Brazil, registered in the database for severe acute respiratory infections (SIVEP-Gripe), from January 2021 to February 2022. We tested four ML models to predict the COVID-19 outcome: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost. We also constructed a comorbidity network to investigate the impact of co-occurring comorbidities on COVID-19 mortality. Our study comprised 8358 hospitalized patients, of whom 2792 (33.40%) died. The XGBoost model achieved excellent performance (ROC-AUC = 0.90). Both permutation method and SHAP values highlighted the importance of age, ventilatory support status, and intensive care unit admission as key features in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. The comorbidity networks for old deceased patients are denser than those for young patients. In addition, the co-occurrence of heart disease and diabetes may be the most important combination to predict COVID-19 mortality, regardless of age and sex. This work presents a valuable combination of machine learning and comorbidity network analysis to predict COVID-19 outcomes. Reliable evidence on this topic is crucial for guiding the post-pandemic response and assisting in COVID-19 care planning and provision.

Exploring Transferable Techniques to Retrieve Crop Biophysical and Biochemical Variables Using Sentinel-2 Data

The current study aimed to determine the spatial transferability of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models for estimating biophysical and biochemical variables (BVs), using Sentinel-2 data. The specific objectives were to: (1) assess the effect of different proportions of training samples (i.e., 25%, 50%, and 75%) available at the Target site (DT) on the spatial transferability of the XGBoost models and (2) evaluate the effect of the Source site (DS) (i.e., trained) model accuracy on the Target site (i.e., unseen) retrieval uncertainty. The results showed that the Bothaville (DS) → Harrismith (DT) Leaf Area Index (LAI) models required only fewer proportions, i.e., 25% or 50%, of the training samples to make optimal retrievals in the DT (i.e., RMSE: 0.61 m2 m−2;R2: 59%), while Harrismith (DS) →Bothaville (DT) LAI models required up to 75% of training samples in the DT to obtain optimal LAI retrievals (i.e., RMSE = 0.63 m2 m−2;R2 = 67%). In contrast, the chlorophyll content models for Bothaville (DS) → Harrismith (DT) required significant proportions of samples (i.e., 75%) from the DT to make optimal retrievals of Leaf Chlorophyll Content (LCab) (i.e., RMSE: 7.09 µg cm−2;R2: 58%) and Canopy Chlorophyll Content (CCC) (i.e., RMSE: 36.3 µg cm−2;R2: 61%), while Harrismith (DS) →Bothaville (DT) models required only 25% of the samples to achieve RMSEs of 8.16 µg cm−2 (R2: 83%) and 40.25 µg cm−2 (R2: 77%), for LCab and CCC, respectively. The results also showed that the source site model accuracy led to better transferability for LAI retrievals. In contrast, the accuracy of LCab and CCC source site models did not necessarily improve their transferability. Overall, the results elucidate the potential of transferable Machine Learning Regression Algorithms and are significant for the rapid retrieval of important crop BVs in data-scarce areas, thus facilitating spatially-explicit information for site-specific farm management.

Fusing XGBoost and SHAP Models for Maritime Accident Prediction and Causality Interpretability Analysis

In order to prevent safety risks, control marine accidents and improve the overall safety of marine navigation, this study established a marine accident prediction model. The influences of management characteristics, environmental characteristics, personnel characteristics, ship characteristics, pilotage characteristics, wharf characteristics and other factors on the safety risk of maritime navigation are discussed. Based on the official data of Zhejiang Maritime Bureau, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to construct a maritime accident classification prediction model, and the explainable machine learning framework SHAP was used to analyze the causal factors of accident risk and the contribution of each feature to the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the XGBoost algorithm can accurately predict the accident types of maritime accidents with an accuracy, precision and recall rate of 97.14%. The crew factor is an important factor affecting the safety risk of maritime navigation, whereas maintaining the equipment and facilities in good condition and improving the management level of shipping companies have positive effects on improving maritime safety. By explaining the correlation between maritime accident characteristics and maritime accidents, this study can provide scientific guidance for maritime management departments and ship companies regarding the control or management of maritime accident prevention.

Pre-hospital prediction of adverse outcomes in patients with suspected COVID-19: Development, application and comparison of machine learning and deep learning methods.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 infected millions of people and increased mortality worldwide. Patients with suspected COVID-19 utilised emergency medical services (EMS) and attended emergency departments, resulting in increased pressures and waiting times. Rapid and accurate decision-making is required to identify patients at high-risk of clinical deterioration following COVID-19 infection, whilst also avoiding unnecessary hospital admissions. Our study aimed to develop artificial intelligence models to predict adverse outcomes in suspected COVID-19 patients attended by EMS clinicians. METHOD: Linked ambulance service data were obtained for 7,549 adult patients with suspected COVID-19 infection attended by EMS clinicians in the Yorkshire and Humber region (England) from 18-03-2020 to 29-06-2020. We used support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network (ANN) models, ensemble learning methods and logistic regression to predict the primary outcome (death or need for organ support within 30 days). Models were compared with two baselines: the decision made by EMS clinicians to convey patients to hospital, and the PRIEST clinical severity score. RESULTS: Of the 7,549 patients attended by EMS clinicians, 1,330 (17.6%) experienced the primary outcome. Machine Learning methods showed slight improvements in sensitivity over baseline results. Further improvements were obtained using stacking ensemble methods, the best geometric mean (GM) results were obtained using SVM and ANN as base learners when maximising sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: These methods could potentially reduce the numbers of patients conveyed to hospital without a concomitant increase in adverse outcomes. Further work is required to test the models externally and develop an automated system for use in clinical settings.

Improved seagull optimization algorithm of partition and XGBoost of prediction for fuzzy time series forecasting of COVID-19 daily confirmed.

The establishment of fuzzy relations and the fuzzification of time series are the top priorities of the model for predicting fuzzy time series. A lot of literature studied these two aspects to ameliorate the capability of the forecasting model. In this paper, we proposed a new method(FTSOAX) to forecast fuzzy time series derived from the improved seagull optimization algorithm(ISOA) and XGBoost. For increasing the accurateness of the forecasting model in fuzzy time series, ISOA is applied to partition the domain of discourse to get more suitable intervals. We improved the seagull optimization algorithm(SOA) with the help of the Powell algorithm and a random curve action to make SOA have better convergence ability. Using XGBoost to forecast the change of fuzzy membership in order to overcome the disadvantage that fuzzy relation leads to low accuracy. We obtained daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in 7 countries as a dataset to demonstrate the performance of FTSOAX. The results show that FTSOAX is superior to other fuzzy forecasting models in the application of prediction of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases.

Parsimonious machine learning models to predict resource use in cardiac surgery across a statewide collaborative.

Objective: We sought to several develop parsimonious machine learning models to predict resource utilization and clinical outcomes following cardiac operations using only preoperative factors. Methods: All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valve operations were identified in the 2015-2021 University of California Cardiac Surgery Consortium repository. The primary end point of the study was length of stay (LOS). Secondary endpoints included 30-day mortality, acute kidney injury, reoperation, postoperative blood transfusion and duration of intensive care unit admission (ICU LOS). Linear regression, gradient boosted machines, random forest, extreme gradient boosting predictive models were developed. The coefficient of determination and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) were used to compare models. Important predictors of increased resource use were identified using SHapley summary plots. Results: Compared with all other modeling strategies, gradient boosted machines demonstrated the greatest performance in the prediction of LOS (coefficient of determination, 0.42), ICU LOS (coefficient of determination, 0.23) and 30-day mortality (AUC, 0.69). Advancing age, reduced hematocrit, and multiple-valve procedures were associated with increased LOS and ICU LOS. Furthermore, the gradient boosted machine model best predicted acute kidney injury (AUC, 0.76), whereas random forest exhibited greatest discrimination in the prediction of postoperative transfusion (AUC, 0.73). We observed no difference in performance between modeling strategies for reoperation (AUC, 0.80). Conclusions: Our findings affirm the utility of machine learning in the estimation of resource use and clinical outcomes following cardiac operations. We identified several risk factors associated with increased resource use, which may be used to guide case scheduling in times of limited hospital capacity.

Interpretable Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Cell-Type Distributions in COVID-19 Disease

High-throughput sequencing of ribonucleic acid molecules is used increasingly to understand gene expression in organs, tissues, and therapies, at a single-cell level. To facilitate the discovery of the heterogeneity and cell-specific factors of the COVID-19 disease, we use an interpretable computational approach that derives cell mixtures from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of healthy donors, and influenza, asymptomatic, mild and severe COVID-19 patients. Cell mixtures are generated using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and are subsequently used as features in the gradient boosting tree classifier. Balanced accuracy of five-fold cross-validation was 68%, significantly higher than expected by random chance. Moreover, 11 out of 19 donors' samples were classified accurately. The main advantage of the mixture-based approach compared to the traditional feature-based classification, is its ability to capture associations between genes as well as between cells. © 2022 IEEE.

Prediction of Pulmonary Function Parameters Based on a Combination Algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary function parameters play a pivotal role in the assessment of respiratory diseases. However, the accuracy of the existing methods for the prediction of pulmonary function parameters is low. This study proposes a combination algorithm to improve the accuracy of pulmonary function parameter prediction. METHODS: We first established a system to collect volumetric capnography and then processed the data with a combination algorithm to predict pulmonary function parameters. The algorithm consists of three main parts: a medical feature regression structure consisting of support vector machines (SVM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, a sequence feature regression structure consisting of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), and an error correction structure using improved K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. RESULTS: The root mean square error (RMSE) of the pulmonary function parameters predicted by the combination algorithm was less than 0.39L and the R2 was found to be greater than 0.85 through a ten-fold cross-validation experiment. CONCLUSION: Compared with the existing methods for predicting pulmonary function parameters, the present algorithm can achieve a higher accuracy rate. At the same time, this algorithm uses specific processing structures for different features, and the interpretability of the algorithm is ensured while mining the feature depth information.

Predicting hospital readmission risk in patients with COVID-19: A machine learning approach.

Introduction: The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic stunned the health systems with severe scarcities in hospital resources. In this critical situation, decreasing COVID-19 readmissions could potentially sustain hospital capacity. This study aimed to select the most affecting features of COVID-19 readmission and compare the capability of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict COVID-19 readmission based on the selected features. Material and methods: The data of 5791 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were retrospectively recruited from a hospital registry system. The LASSO feature selection algorithm was used to select the most important features related to COVID-19 readmission. HistGradientBoosting classifier (HGB), Bagging classifier, Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine ((SVM) kernel = linear), SVM (kernel = RBF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers were used for prediction. We evaluated the performance of ML algorithms with a 10-fold cross-validation method using six performance evaluation metrics. Results: Out of the 42 features, 14 were identified as the most relevant predictors. The XGBoost classifier outperformed the other six ML models with an average accuracy of 91.7%, specificity of 91.3%, the sensitivity of 91.6%, F-measure of 91.8%, and AUC of 0.91%. Conclusion: The experimental results prove that ML models can satisfactorily predict COVID-19 readmission. Besides considering the risk factors prioritized in this work, categorizing cases with a high risk of reinfection can make the patient triaging procedure and hospital resource utilization more effective.

Corrigendum: Insights Into Co-Morbidity and Other Risk Factors Related to COVID-19 Within Ontario, Canada.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/frai.2021.684609.].

Unlocking the black box: Non-parametric option pricing before and during COVID-19.

This paper addresses the interpretability problem of non-parametric option pricing models by using the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach. We study call options written on the S&P 500 stock market index across three market regimes: pre-COVID-19, COVID-19 market crash, and post-COVID-19 recovery. Our comparative option pricing exercise demonstrates the superiority of the random forest and extreme gradient boosting models for each market regime. We also show that the model's pricing accuracy has worsened from the pre-COVID-19 to the recovery period. Moneyness was the most important price determinants across the market regimes, while the implied volatility and time-to-maturity inputs contributed intermittently to a lesser extent. During the COVID-19 crash, open interest gained more economic importance due to the increased behavioral tendencies of traders consistent with market distress.

Evolution of the IBEX-35 vs other international indices: determinants of market value according to XGBOOST and GLM models

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the influence of different quantitative (traditionally used) and qualitative variables, such as the possible negative effect in determined periods of certain socio-political factors on share price formation.Design/methodology/approachWe first analyse descriptively the evolution of the Ibex-35 in recent years and compare it with other international benchmark indices. Bellow, two techniques have been compared: a classic linear regression statistical model (GLM) and a method based on machine learning techniques called Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost).FindingsXGBoost yields a very accurate market value prediction model that clearly outperforms the other, with a coefficient of determination close to 90%, calculated on validation sets.Practical implicationsAccording to our analysis, individual accounts are equally or more important than consolidated information in predicting the behaviour of share prices. This would justify Spain maintaining the obligation to present individual interim financial statements, which does not happen in other European Union countries because IAS 34 only stipulates consolidated interim financial statements.Social implicationsThe descriptive analysis allows us to see how the Ibex-35 has moved away from international trends, especially in periods in which some relevant socio-political events occurred, such as the independence referendum in Catalonia, the double elections of 2019 or the early handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.Originality/valueCompared to other variables, the XGBoost model assigns little importance to socio-political factors when it comes to share price formation;however, this model explains 89.33% of its variance.

Nonlinear Associations between Medical Expenditure, Perceived Medical Attitude, and Sociodemographics, and Older Adults' Self-Rated Health in China: Applying the Extreme Gradient Boosting Model.

BACKGROUND: although China's total health expenditure has been dramatically increased so that the country can cope with its aging population, inequalities among individuals in terms of their medical expenditures (relative to their income level) have exacerbated health problems among older adults. This study aims to examine the nonlinear associations between each of medical expenditure, perceived medical attitude, and sociodemographics, and older adults' self-rated health (SRH); it does so by using data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies survey. METHOD: we used the extreme gradient boosting model to explore the nonlinear association between various factors and older adults' SRH outcomes. We then conducted partial dependence plots to examine the threshold effects of each factor on older adults' SRH. RESULTS: older adults' medical expenditure exceeded their overall income. Body mass index (BMI) and personal health expenditure play an essential role in predicting older adults' SRH outcomes. We found older adult age, physical exercise status, and residential location to be robust predictors of SRH outcomes in older adults. Partial dependence plots of the results visualized the nonlinear association between variables and the threshold effects of factors on older adults' SRH outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: findings from this study underscore the importance of medical expenditure, perceived medical attitudes, and BMI as important predictors of health benefits in older adults. The potential threshold effects of medical expenditure on older adults' SRH outcomes provide a better understanding of the formation of appropriate medical policy interventions by balancing the government and personal medical expenditure to promote health benefits among older adults.

A Decision-Level Fusion Method for COVID-19 Patient Health Prediction

With the continuous attempts to develop effective machine learning methods, information fusion approaches play an important role in integrating data from multiple sources and improving these methods' performance. Among the different fusion techniques, decision-level fusion has unique advantages to fuse the decisions of various classifiers and getting an effective outcome. In this paper, we propose a decision-level fusion method that combines three well-calibrated ensemble classifiers, namely, a random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) methods. It is used to predict the COVID-19 patient health for early monitoring and efficient treatment. A soft voting technique is used to generate the final decision result from the predictions of these calibrated classifiers. The method uses the COVID-19 patient's health information, travel demographic, and geographical data to predict the possible outcome of the COVID-19 case, recovered, or death. A different set of experiments is conducted on a public novel Corona Virus 2019 dataset using a different ratio of test sets. The experimental results show that the proposed fusion method achieved an accuracy of 97.24% and an F1-score of 0.97, which is higher than the current related work that has an accuracy of 94% and an F1-score 0.86, on 20% test set taken from the dataset. (C) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.